Hello ba'c Ca et al:
O*? Nha^.t chi? co' mo^~i ba'c Ca la` ba`n loa.n chuye^n "Japan co' gi`
la. kho^ng em ?" vo*'i to^i tho^i a` ?
Ba'c TLT ddi dda^u ma^'t ro^`i ? Ba'c Tua^'n Du*o*ng Tha^'y ba'c Lan
Hu*o*ng la` cha.y tuo^.t qua NGa ta'n chuye^.n, to^i o*'i ma~i cu~ng
kho^ng ra ta'n chuye^.n be^n Nhu*.t, ddo^`ng Yen lu*o*ng cu?a ca'c ba'c
ddang le^n xuo^'ng ha`ng nga`y!!!!!
Ca'n o*n nhu*~ng tho^ng tin cu?a ba'c Ca ve^` ba'o chi Nha^.t .
Tu*` nhu*~ng post tru*o*'c to^i muo^'n no'i ve^` nguo^`n tie^`n tu*`
be^n ngoa`i ddo^? va`o kinh te^' Nha^.t nhu* : tie^`n lo*`i tu*` ha`ng
xua^'t kha^?u, dda^`u tu* mang lo*`i ve^` cho Nha^.t ( tuy nhie^n vo*'i
ca'c bad loan thi` no' la` dda^`u tu*: lo^~, cu.t vo^'n) nhu* hie^.n
nay, tie^`n dda^`u tu* cu?a nu*o*'c ngoa`i va`o Nha^.t "Buy Japan" nhu*
hie^.n nay.
Co' le~ ddie^~u co^'t ye^'u: muo^'n vu*.c kinh te^' Nha^.t da^.y pha?i
ca^`n tie^`n!
Ma` nguo^`n tie^`n co' the^? dde^'n tu*`:
1 . Thi. tru*o*`ng tie^u thu., tie^`n dde^? da`nh cu?a ngu*o*`i da^n
Nha^.t trog nu*o*'c. Pha^`n na`y ba'c Ca dda~ tri'ch ba'o no'i ra^'t
dda^`y ddu? ve^` su*. ki'ch thi'ch dda^`u tu*, va` tie^u du`ng trong
nu*o*'c . To^i hoa`n toa`n ddo^~ng y'; kho^ng co' gi` pha?n lua^.n ca?;
nhu*ng to^i nghi~ la` kho^ng ddu? vi` thie^'u ha(?n pha^`n tie^`n tu*`
be^n ngoa`i ddo^? va`o Nha^.t .
2 . Tie^`n mang la.i do ma^.u di.ch vo*'i My~ va` A^u Cha^u; Cho dde^'n
nay ca'c thi. tru*o*`ng na`y va^~n mang la.i mo^'i lo*.i lo*'n cho
Nha^.t . Nhi`n mo^.t ca'ch Globalised, thi` nhu*~ng mo'n lo*`i do ma^.u
di.ch mo*'i la` nhu*~ng nguo^`n "fresh blood" cha?y va`o KT Nha^.t .
Ho. du`ng tie^`n na`y dde^? xa^y du*.ng the^m nha` ma'y thie^'t bi.
etc... va` quan tro.ng ho*n nu*~a, ddo' la` nguo^`n tie^`n tie^`n dde^?
mua nguye^n lie^.u cho co^ng nghie^.p Nha^.t . Ta ne^n tha^'y ro~
nu*o*'c Nha^.t ddo^ng da^n, dda^'t he.p va` KHO^NG co' nhie^`u TA`I
NGUYE^N! Ha^`u nhu* ca'c nguye^n lie^.u dde^`u pha?i nha^.p .
Tie^`n do dda^`u tu* tu*` be^n ngoa`i va`o Nha^.t , hoa(.c nhu*~ng mo'n
tie^`n tu*` Ngoa`i cho Nha^.t mu*o*.n dde^? ddo*~ "no'ng" cho nhu*~ng
bad loan ma` nga^n ha`ng Nha^.t dda~ cho mu*o*.n bu*`a ba~i tru*o*'c
dda^y.
To^i nghi~ o^ng Miyazawa (78 tuo^?i) la` ngu*o*`i gio?i trong co^ng
vie^.c giao tie^'p vo*'i be^n ngoa`i dde^? mang la.i nguo^`n tie^`n tu*`
ngoa`i cha?y va`o Nha^.t .
DDo' la` ddie^`u to^i ddoa'n ve^` vai tro` cu?a o^ng Miyazawa vo*'i kinh
te^' Nha^.t trong bo^'i ca?nh kinh te^' the^' gio*'i hie^.n nay. Ba'o
chi' Nha^.t co^' cu*o*`ng ddie^.u kha? na(ng tu*. cu*o*`ng cu?a trong
nu*o*'c Nha^.t; theo to^i cha(?ng qua ddo' chi? la` sa?n pha^?m cu?a
"Tinh tha^`n dda?o quo^'c DDa.i Nha^.t Ba?n" hoa(.c "Nippon Ichi Ban"
(nu*o*'c Nha^.t number one) mo^.t loa.i tu*. a'i da^n to^.c gia? ta.o.
DDo.c ba'o NHa^.t, to^i tha^'y ho. no'i kho^ng sai, ca'c pha^n ti'ch
cu?a ho. cu~ng ddu'ng nu*~a , nhu*ng ddo' chi? co' 1/2 cu?a bu*'c tranh!
Ca'i lo^'i nhi`n na`y to^i cho la` kho^ng ddu? hoa(.c kho^ng toa`n
die^.n cu?a bu*'c tranh "con thuye^`n Nha^.t ba?n trong co*n phong ba
kinh te^' ta.i A' Cha^u"
Xin go'p y' , mong ca'c ba'c chi? bao nhu*~ng sai so'i cu?a tui .
Cheers
DX (mu'a riu` qua ma(.t ca'c hu? kinh te^')
>Ba'c Die^~m me^'n,
>
>At 14:52 98/07/31 -0500, DiemQuynh Nguyen wrote:
>>
>> HI ba'c Ca :
>> Theo tui, o^ng Miyazawa la` ngu*o*`i theo sa't chi'nh sa'ch kinh
te^'
>> ta`i chi'nh cu?a My~ ta.i A' Cha^u va` the^' gio*'i! O^ng ta la`
>> ngu*o*`i co' ta`i kinh te^' (nhi`n tu*~ Nha^.t( vi` dda~ na('m
ddu*o*.c
>> "cu? ca` ro^'t" My~ (chi'nh sa'ch "ca^y ga^.y va` cu? ca` ro^'t" cu?a
>> My~)
>
>Ca'c phu+o+ng tie^.n tho^ng tin dda.i chu'ng cu?a Nha^.t la.i ke^u ca
la`
>chi'nh o^ng Miyazawa la` ngu+o+`i ta.o ra ne^`n kinh te^' bong bo'ng
xa`
>pho`ng va` ho. kho^ng tin ra(`ng o^ng ta co' kha? na(ng thay ddo^?i
no'.
>Cu~ng chi'nh o^ng Miyazawa la` ngu+o+`i ma^'t chu+'c vi` ca'i bong
bo'ng
>no^?.
>
>>
>> He he he, ta.i ma^'y o^ng thu? thu*o*'ng sau va` bo^. tru*o*?ng ta`i
>> chi'nh sau cu?a Nha^.t dde^? vuo^.t ma^'t cu? ca` ro^'t My~ ro^`i!
Sau
>> ddo nha` ba'c Hashimoto vo*'i ca'i nhi`n ra^'t "Nha^.t ba?n dda?o
>> quo^'c" la` cho^'ng la.i vie^.c mua ga.o va` thi.t bo` tu*` My~ (tui
>> no'i chuye^.n na`y nhie^`u qua' ro^`i! bie^'t dzo^`i kho^? na('m lo'i
>> ma~i!!!). Vo*'i chi'nh sa'ch "bo? cu? ca` ro^'t" "tu*.. ha`o Nha^.t
>> ba?n" na`y cu?a o^ng bo^. tru*o*?ng Hashi moto sau la` Thu? tu*o*'ng
>> Hashimoto (dde.p trai, chi. em so^`n so^`n Nhu*.t thi'ch!) la`m ba^'t
>> lo*.i cho Nha^.t va` ra^'t lo*.i cho Trung quo^'c ddu*a ha`ng va`o
My~!
>> Ke^'t qua? la` ha`ng Trung quo^'c chie^'m ddu*o*.c mo^.t so^' thi.
>> tru*o*`ng ta.i My~; va` My~ ga^`n Trung Quo^'c ho*n! Anh Nha^.t ma^'t
>> va`i tro` mo^.t ddo^`ng minh ra^'t tha^n o*? A' Cha^u cu?a My~, ma`
>> Trung quo^'c cu~ng tro*? tha`nh mo^.t ba.n tha^n cu?a My~ o*? A'
>> Cha^u.....
>> Tu*` ddo' nu*o*'c Nha^.t pha?i ddo^'i pho' vo*'i nhie^`u thu*?
tha'ch
>> ho*n dde^? ba?o ve^. "nie^`m tu*. ha`o dda.i quo^'c Nha^.t ba?n" cu?a
>> mi`nh! Cu~ng la` chuye^.n "no pain, no gain" tho^i! Ne^'u Nha^.t
ba?n
>> tu*. gia?i quye^'t ddu*o*.c nhu*~ng kho' kha(n hie^.n nay ma` kho^ng
>> ca^~n dde^'n A^u cha^u, hoa(.c My~ xen va`o thi` Nha^.t se~ KHA(?NG
>> DDI.NH ddu*o*.c va`i tro` DDA.I QUO^'C cu?a mi`nh tre^n the^' gio*'i!
>> Co`n ngu*o*`.c la.i thi` o^ng thu/ tu*o*'ng Nha^.t va` ca'c nha`
la~nh
>> dda.o Nha^.t se~ ho.c ba`i ho.c: " bie^'t min`h bie^'t ngu*o*`i"
>>
>
>To^i cu~ng kho^ng hie^?u la('m ve^` kinh te^' nhu+ng ca'i vu. suy
thoa'i na`y
>die^~n bie^'n nhu+ sau.
>
>Tru+o+'c tie^n la` gia' nha` dda^'t qua' cao va` le^n vu`n vu.t. Vi`
kinh
>doanh de^~ qua' ne^n ai na^'y ddo^? he^'t va`o nha` dda^'t. Ke^'t qua?
do
>su+'c mua co' ha.n, xa^y le^n qua' nhie^`u ma` kho^ng ai mua, la~i
sua^'t
>tie^'t kie^.m cao ne^n ca'c co^ng ty dda^`u tu+ va`o nha` dda^'t pha'
sa?n,
>hay no'i ca'ch kha'c kho^ng thanh toa'n no^?i no+.. Mo^.t so^' nga^n
ha`ng
>dda^`u tu+ va`o dda^'t ddai cu~ng la^m va`o ti`nh tra.ng na`y. Do su+.
>ddi`nh ddo^'n cu?a thi. tru+o+`ng ba^'t ddo^.ng sa?n, gia' ba^'t
ddo^.ng
>sa?n xuo^'ng. Ca'i na`y vo^ cu`ng phie^`n toa'i vi` no' se~ la`m ddi`nh
>tre^. vie^.c mua ba'n va` kinh doanh no'i chung. Ca'c co^ng ty xa^y
du+.ng
>(sie^u co^ng ty) i't vie^.c la`m, ca'c nga^n ha`ng cho^`ng cha^'t no+.
>kho^ng co' kha? na(ng tra?; ngu+o+`i lao ddo^.ng lo so+. va` kho^ng
da'm
>chi tie^u nu+~a. Vie^.c tie^'t kie^.m dda~ la`m cho toa`n bo^. ne^`n
kinh
>te^' ddi`nh ddo^'n. Kinh te^' ca`ng ddi`nh ddo^'n ho. ca`ng tie^'t
kie^.m.
>Ca'c nga^n ha`ng nhu+ con chim pha?i te^n so+. la`n ca^y cong, kho^ng
da'm
>cho ai vay nu+~a, tie^`n ddo.ng la.i nga^n ha`ng, la~i sua^'t tie^'t
kie^.m
>gia?m. Cu+' the^' ....
>
>Ve^` xua^'t sie^u thi` to^i cho ra(`ng Nha^.t va^~n xua^'t sie^u qua'
ma.nh.
>My~ va` ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c lu'c na`o cu~ng ke^u a^`m y~ ve^` xua^'t
sie^u
>cu?a Nha^.t.
>
>Ho^m tru+o+'c co' ba'c ke^u la` da^n Nha^.t tie^'t kie^.m. To^i ba^.n
>qua' kho^ng ki.p ca~i. Trong thu+.c te^', ngay ca? lu'c kinh te^'
ddi`nh
>ddo^'n, ga Tokyo va^~n nghe.t ngu+o+`i ddi ca'c chuye^'n ta`u super
express,
>ma'y bay va^~n ddo^ng nghe.t, va` ca'c nha` ha`ng trong ca'c khu a(n
uo^'ng
>va`o buo^?i to^'i va^~n kho^ng co`n cho^~ tro^'ng. Ne^`n kinh te^'
Nha^.t
>kho^ng the^? du+.a va`o xua^'t sie^u. Ho. dda~ xua^'t sie^u qua'
nhie^`u.
>Ne^`n kinh te^' Nha^.t du+.a chu? ye^'u va`o mu+'c tie^u du`ng cu?a
da^n.
>120 trie^.u da^n Nha^.t mo+'i la` quan tro.ng nha^'t. To^i se~ no'i
the^m.
>
>
>> Ne^'u kho^ng co' IMF nha?y va`o hay My~ tung tie^`n va`o cu*'u (nhu*
>> dda~ cu*'u Mexico ma^'y ma(m tru*o*'c) thi` ai co' tie^~n tra? cho
>> nhu*~ng bad loan na`y hu? ba'c ? Tha'i Lan, Indonexia, DDa.i Ha`n
>> etc.... ho. ddang kho^ng co' tie^`n tra? no*.! DDang na('m a'o IMF
xin
>> "mu*o*.n no'ng" tie^`n dde^? tra? nhu*~ng mo'n no*. cu?a Nhu*.t ma`
>> kho^ng bie^'t co' OK kho^ng ? Wall Street va^~n chu*a tha^'y co'
da^'u
>> hie^.u gi` release fund cho nhu*~ng lo*`i xin mu*o*.n tie^`n na`y!
>>
>>
>
>Kho^ng co' mo^.t nga^n ha`ng quo^'c te^' na`o da'm no'i to+'i no+.
kho^ng thanh
>toa'n no^?i cu?a Nha^.t. Mo^.t ddie^`u ddo+n gia?n la` so^' no+. qua'
lo+'n.
>Theo con so^' chi'nh thu+'c, so^' ddo' la` 500 ty? ddo^ la. Tuy nhie^n,
>theo con so^' kho^ng chi'nh thu+'c, so^' ddo' khoa?ng 1000 ty? ddo^ la.
>
>Du` the^' na`o ddi cha(ng nu+~a, chi? co' ngu+o+`i Nha^.t la` co' kha?
na(ng
>tra? ca'c mo'n no+. na`y. Hie^.n nay, theo con so^' kho^ng chi'nh
thu+'c
>(nhu+ng ddu+o+.c coi la` ra^'t chi'nh xa'c vi` do ca'c nha` kinh te^'
lo+'n
>va` ca'c nga^n ha`ng lo+'n ddu+a ra), to^?ng du+ tru+~ tie^`n ma(.t
>(hoa`n toa`n kho^ng ti'nh ba^'t cu+' loa.i ta`i sa?n gi` kha'c ngoa`i
>tie^`n ma(.t) cu?a ngu+o+`i Nha^.t la` khoa?ng 100 000 USD / dda^`u
>ngu+o+`i. Kho^ng co' mo^.t nu+o+'c na`o tre^n the^' gio+'i co' no^?i
>mo^.t lu+o+.ng tie^`n khu?ng khie^'p nhu+ the^'. Toa`n nu+o+'c Nha^.t
>co' khoa?ng 12 nghi`n ty? ddo^ la tie^`n ma(.t :-)). Ca(n cu+' tre^n
>ddie^`u na`y, o^ng Obuchi va` phe o^ng ddu+a ra mo^.t chi'nh sa'ch kinh
>te^' "ha. ca'nh nhe. nha`ng". No^.i dung cu?a chi'nh sa'ch na`y la`
giu+~
>nguye^n bad loan, cu+'u ca'c nga^n
>ha`ng, du`ng tie^`n cu?a da^n (na(`m trong ca'c nga^n ha`ng vo+'i la~i
>sua^'t khoa?ng 0.3%/na(m) dde^? ti`m ca'ch thu'c dda^?y ne^`n kinh
te^',
>vu+.c la.i ca'c co^ng ty thua lo^~ dde^? ho. co' ddu? kha? na(ng chi
tra?.
>Ca'i ca^`n nha^'t cu?a chi'nh sa'ch na`y la` gia?m thue^', ta.o co^ng
a(n
>vie^.c la`m dde^? ngu+o+`i lao ddo^.ng mua ha`ng tro+? la.i. Ne^'u
ngu+o+`i
>Nha^.t mua ha`ng tro+? la.i thi` ne^`n kinh te^' se~ ca^'t ca'nh.
>
>Phe kha'c do o^ng Kajiyama chu? tri` kho^ng ddo^`ng y' ca'ch na`y. O^ng
cho
>ra(`ng
>no' kho^ng kha? thi. Ca'i ca^`n nha^'t, theo ca'c o^ng (va` cu~ng theo
>dde^` nghi. cu?a My~) la` gia?i quye^'t (hay gie^'t) nhu+~ng nga^n
ha`ng ye^'u
>ke'm. Nhu+ va^.y, nha` nu+o+'c ddu+'ng ra mua la.i ca'c khoa?n no+.
kho^ng
>thanh toa'n no^?i cu?a ca'c nga^n ha`ng ye^'u ke'm, ro^`i cho no' vo+~
no+.
>Vie^.c na`y se~ la`m trong sa.ch ca'c nga^n ha`ng, giu'p cho ca'c nga^n
ha`ng
>cu?ng co^' nie^`m tin va` ta.o su+'c ma.nh cho ho. dde^? ho. co' kha?
na(ng
>cho vay dde^? pha't trie^?n sa?n xua^'t, ta.o co^ng a(n vie^.c la`m va`
ta(ng
>nie^`m tin cho ngu+o+`i lao ddo^.ng dde^? ho. mua ha`ng.
>
>Du+ lua^.n da^n Nha^.t, vo^'n ghe't nga^n ha`ng (bo.n na`y lu+o+ng cao
khu?ng
>khie^'p va` ddu+o+.c hu+o+?ng mo.i thu+' bao ca^'p, thi' du. o+? mo^.t
ca(n
>ho^. gia' khoa?ng 2500 USD/tha'ng chi? pha?i tra? 250 USD/tha'ng),
ra^'t u?ng
>ho^. phu+o+ng pha'p cu?a o^ng Kajiyama.
>
>Hie^.n ta.i, o^ng Obuchi va` phe o^ng ddang kho^ng theo su+. go+.i y'
cu?a My~:
>ta.o ra mo^.t ne^`n kinh te^' trong sa.ch, ca'c phu+o+ng thu+'c thanh
toa'n
>ro~ ra`ng, trong suo^'t.... va` la`m mu. Albright no^?i gia^.n. Kho^ng
hie^?u
>ho^`i sau ra sao.
>
>Du` sao cu~ng ca^`n thu'c dda^?y da^n Nha^.t mua ha`ng. Tie^u du`ng la`
su+.
>so^'ng
>co`n cu?a ne^`n kinh te^' Nha^.t.
>
>Ca'c chuye^n gia kinh te^' ddu+`ng cu+o+`i vi` nhu+~ng do`ng vie^'t
nga^y
>ngo^ o+? tre^n :-).
>
>Ca.
>
>
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