Ba'c Die^~m me^'n,
At 14:52 98/07/31 -0500, DiemQuynh Nguyen wrote:
>
> HI ba'c Ca :
> Theo tui, o^ng Miyazawa la` ngu*o*`i theo sa't chi'nh sa'ch kinh te^'
> ta`i chi'nh cu?a My~ ta.i A' Cha^u va` the^' gio*'i! O^ng ta la`
> ngu*o*`i co' ta`i kinh te^' (nhi`n tu*~ Nha^.t( vi` dda~ na('m ddu*o*.c
> "cu? ca` ro^'t" My~ (chi'nh sa'ch "ca^y ga^.y va` cu? ca` ro^'t" cu?a
> My~)
Ca'c phu+o+ng tie^.n tho^ng tin dda.i chu'ng cu?a Nha^.t la.i ke^u ca la`
chi'nh o^ng Miyazawa la` ngu+o+`i ta.o ra ne^`n kinh te^' bong bo'ng xa`
pho`ng va` ho. kho^ng tin ra(`ng o^ng ta co' kha? na(ng thay ddo^?i no'.
Cu~ng chi'nh o^ng Miyazawa la` ngu+o+`i ma^'t chu+'c vi` ca'i bong bo'ng
no^?.
>
> He he he, ta.i ma^'y o^ng thu? thu*o*'ng sau va` bo^. tru*o*?ng ta`i
> chi'nh sau cu?a Nha^.t dde^? vuo^.t ma^'t cu? ca` ro^'t My~ ro^`i! Sau
> ddo nha` ba'c Hashimoto vo*'i ca'i nhi`n ra^'t "Nha^.t ba?n dda?o
> quo^'c" la` cho^'ng la.i vie^.c mua ga.o va` thi.t bo` tu*` My~ (tui
> no'i chuye^.n na`y nhie^`u qua' ro^`i! bie^'t dzo^`i kho^? na('m lo'i
> ma~i!!!). Vo*'i chi'nh sa'ch "bo? cu? ca` ro^'t" "tu*.. ha`o Nha^.t
> ba?n" na`y cu?a o^ng bo^. tru*o*?ng Hashi moto sau la` Thu? tu*o*'ng
> Hashimoto (dde.p trai, chi. em so^`n so^`n Nhu*.t thi'ch!) la`m ba^'t
> lo*.i cho Nha^.t va` ra^'t lo*.i cho Trung quo^'c ddu*a ha`ng va`o My~!
> Ke^'t qua? la` ha`ng Trung quo^'c chie^'m ddu*o*.c mo^.t so^' thi.
> tru*o*`ng ta.i My~; va` My~ ga^`n Trung Quo^'c ho*n! Anh Nha^.t ma^'t
> va`i tro` mo^.t ddo^`ng minh ra^'t tha^n o*? A' Cha^u cu?a My~, ma`
> Trung quo^'c cu~ng tro*? tha`nh mo^.t ba.n tha^n cu?a My~ o*? A'
> Cha^u.....
> Tu*` ddo' nu*o*'c Nha^.t pha?i ddo^'i pho' vo*'i nhie^`u thu*? tha'ch
> ho*n dde^? ba?o ve^. "nie^`m tu*. ha`o dda.i quo^'c Nha^.t ba?n" cu?a
> mi`nh! Cu~ng la` chuye^.n "no pain, no gain" tho^i! Ne^'u Nha^.t ba?n
> tu*. gia?i quye^'t ddu*o*.c nhu*~ng kho' kha(n hie^.n nay ma` kho^ng
> ca^~n dde^'n A^u cha^u, hoa(.c My~ xen va`o thi` Nha^.t se~ KHA(?NG
> DDI.NH ddu*o*.c va`i tro` DDA.I QUO^'C cu?a mi`nh tre^n the^' gio*'i!
> Co`n ngu*o*`.c la.i thi` o^ng thu/ tu*o*'ng Nha^.t va` ca'c nha` la~nh
> dda.o Nha^.t se~ ho.c ba`i ho.c: " bie^'t min`h bie^'t ngu*o*`i"
>
To^i cu~ng kho^ng hie^?u la('m ve^` kinh te^' nhu+ng ca'i vu. suy thoa'i na`y
die^~n bie^'n nhu+ sau.
Tru+o+'c tie^n la` gia' nha` dda^'t qua' cao va` le^n vu`n vu.t. Vi` kinh
doanh de^~ qua' ne^n ai na^'y ddo^? he^'t va`o nha` dda^'t. Ke^'t qua? do
su+'c mua co' ha.n, xa^y le^n qua' nhie^`u ma` kho^ng ai mua, la~i sua^'t
tie^'t kie^.m cao ne^n ca'c co^ng ty dda^`u tu+ va`o nha` dda^'t pha' sa?n,
hay no'i ca'ch kha'c kho^ng thanh toa'n no^?i no+.. Mo^.t so^' nga^n ha`ng
dda^`u tu+ va`o dda^'t ddai cu~ng la^m va`o ti`nh tra.ng na`y. Do su+.
ddi`nh ddo^'n cu?a thi. tru+o+`ng ba^'t ddo^.ng sa?n, gia' ba^'t ddo^.ng
sa?n xuo^'ng. Ca'i na`y vo^ cu`ng phie^`n toa'i vi` no' se~ la`m ddi`nh
tre^. vie^.c mua ba'n va` kinh doanh no'i chung. Ca'c co^ng ty xa^y du+.ng
(sie^u co^ng ty) i't vie^.c la`m, ca'c nga^n ha`ng cho^`ng cha^'t no+.
kho^ng co' kha? na(ng tra?; ngu+o+`i lao ddo^.ng lo so+. va` kho^ng da'm
chi tie^u nu+~a. Vie^.c tie^'t kie^.m dda~ la`m cho toa`n bo^. ne^`n kinh
te^' ddi`nh ddo^'n. Kinh te^' ca`ng ddi`nh ddo^'n ho. ca`ng tie^'t kie^.m.
Ca'c nga^n ha`ng nhu+ con chim pha?i te^n so+. la`n ca^y cong, kho^ng da'm
cho ai vay nu+~a, tie^`n ddo.ng la.i nga^n ha`ng, la~i sua^'t tie^'t kie^.m
gia?m. Cu+' the^' ....
Ve^` xua^'t sie^u thi` to^i cho ra(`ng Nha^.t va^~n xua^'t sie^u qua' ma.nh.
My~ va` ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c lu'c na`o cu~ng ke^u a^`m y~ ve^` xua^'t sie^u
cu?a Nha^.t.
Ho^m tru+o+'c co' ba'c ke^u la` da^n Nha^.t tie^'t kie^.m. To^i ba^.n
qua' kho^ng ki.p ca~i. Trong thu+.c te^', ngay ca? lu'c kinh te^' ddi`nh
ddo^'n, ga Tokyo va^~n nghe.t ngu+o+`i ddi ca'c chuye^'n ta`u super express,
ma'y bay va^~n ddo^ng nghe.t, va` ca'c nha` ha`ng trong ca'c khu a(n uo^'ng
va`o buo^?i to^'i va^~n kho^ng co`n cho^~ tro^'ng. Ne^`n kinh te^' Nha^.t
kho^ng the^? du+.a va`o xua^'t sie^u. Ho. dda~ xua^'t sie^u qua' nhie^`u.
Ne^`n kinh te^' Nha^.t du+.a chu? ye^'u va`o mu+'c tie^u du`ng cu?a da^n.
120 trie^.u da^n Nha^.t mo+'i la` quan tro.ng nha^'t. To^i se~ no'i the^m.
> Ne^'u kho^ng co' IMF nha?y va`o hay My~ tung tie^`n va`o cu*'u (nhu*
> dda~ cu*'u Mexico ma^'y ma(m tru*o*'c) thi` ai co' tie^~n tra? cho
> nhu*~ng bad loan na`y hu? ba'c ? Tha'i Lan, Indonexia, DDa.i Ha`n
> etc.... ho. ddang kho^ng co' tie^`n tra? no*.! DDang na('m a'o IMF xin
> "mu*o*.n no'ng" tie^`n dde^? tra? nhu*~ng mo'n no*. cu?a Nhu*.t ma`
> kho^ng bie^'t co' OK kho^ng ? Wall Street va^~n chu*a tha^'y co' da^'u
> hie^.u gi` release fund cho nhu*~ng lo*`i xin mu*o*.n tie^`n na`y!
>
>
Kho^ng co' mo^.t nga^n ha`ng quo^'c te^' na`o da'm no'i to+'i no+. kho^ng thanh
toa'n no^?i cu?a Nha^.t. Mo^.t ddie^`u ddo+n gia?n la` so^' no+. qua' lo+'n.
Theo con so^' chi'nh thu+'c, so^' ddo' la` 500 ty? ddo^ la. Tuy nhie^n,
theo con so^' kho^ng chi'nh thu+'c, so^' ddo' khoa?ng 1000 ty? ddo^ la.
Du` the^' na`o ddi cha(ng nu+~a, chi? co' ngu+o+`i Nha^.t la` co' kha? na(ng
tra? ca'c mo'n no+. na`y. Hie^.n nay, theo con so^' kho^ng chi'nh thu+'c
(nhu+ng ddu+o+.c coi la` ra^'t chi'nh xa'c vi` do ca'c nha` kinh te^' lo+'n
va` ca'c nga^n ha`ng lo+'n ddu+a ra), to^?ng du+ tru+~ tie^`n ma(.t
(hoa`n toa`n kho^ng ti'nh ba^'t cu+' loa.i ta`i sa?n gi` kha'c ngoa`i
tie^`n ma(.t) cu?a ngu+o+`i Nha^.t la` khoa?ng 100 000 USD / dda^`u
ngu+o+`i. Kho^ng co' mo^.t nu+o+'c na`o tre^n the^' gio+'i co' no^?i
mo^.t lu+o+.ng tie^`n khu?ng khie^'p nhu+ the^'. Toa`n nu+o+'c Nha^.t
co' khoa?ng 12 nghi`n ty? ddo^ la tie^`n ma(.t :-)). Ca(n cu+' tre^n
ddie^`u na`y, o^ng Obuchi va` phe o^ng ddu+a ra mo^.t chi'nh sa'ch kinh
te^' "ha. ca'nh nhe. nha`ng". No^.i dung cu?a chi'nh sa'ch na`y la` giu+~
nguye^n bad loan, cu+'u ca'c nga^n
ha`ng, du`ng tie^`n cu?a da^n (na(`m trong ca'c nga^n ha`ng vo+'i la~i
sua^'t khoa?ng 0.3%/na(m) dde^? ti`m ca'ch thu'c dda^?y ne^`n kinh te^',
vu+.c la.i ca'c co^ng ty thua lo^~ dde^? ho. co' ddu? kha? na(ng chi tra?.
Ca'i ca^`n nha^'t cu?a chi'nh sa'ch na`y la` gia?m thue^', ta.o co^ng a(n
vie^.c la`m dde^? ngu+o+`i lao ddo^.ng mua ha`ng tro+? la.i. Ne^'u ngu+o+`i
Nha^.t mua ha`ng tro+? la.i thi` ne^`n kinh te^' se~ ca^'t ca'nh.
Phe kha'c do o^ng Kajiyama chu? tri` kho^ng ddo^`ng y' ca'ch na`y. O^ng cho
ra(`ng
no' kho^ng kha? thi. Ca'i ca^`n nha^'t, theo ca'c o^ng (va` cu~ng theo
dde^` nghi. cu?a My~) la` gia?i quye^'t (hay gie^'t) nhu+~ng nga^n ha`ng ye^'u
ke'm. Nhu+ va^.y, nha` nu+o+'c ddu+'ng ra mua la.i ca'c khoa?n no+. kho^ng
thanh toa'n no^?i cu?a ca'c nga^n ha`ng ye^'u ke'm, ro^`i cho no' vo+~ no+.
Vie^.c na`y se~ la`m trong sa.ch ca'c nga^n ha`ng, giu'p cho ca'c nga^n ha`ng
cu?ng co^' nie^`m tin va` ta.o su+'c ma.nh cho ho. dde^? ho. co' kha? na(ng
cho vay dde^? pha't trie^?n sa?n xua^'t, ta.o co^ng a(n vie^.c la`m va` ta(ng
nie^`m tin cho ngu+o+`i lao ddo^.ng dde^? ho. mua ha`ng.
Du+ lua^.n da^n Nha^.t, vo^'n ghe't nga^n ha`ng (bo.n na`y lu+o+ng cao khu?ng
khie^'p va` ddu+o+.c hu+o+?ng mo.i thu+' bao ca^'p, thi' du. o+? mo^.t ca(n
ho^. gia' khoa?ng 2500 USD/tha'ng chi? pha?i tra? 250 USD/tha'ng), ra^'t u?ng
ho^. phu+o+ng pha'p cu?a o^ng Kajiyama.
Hie^.n ta.i, o^ng Obuchi va` phe o^ng ddang kho^ng theo su+. go+.i y' cu?a My~:
ta.o ra mo^.t ne^`n kinh te^' trong sa.ch, ca'c phu+o+ng thu+'c thanh toa'n
ro~ ra`ng, trong suo^'t.... va` la`m mu. Albright no^?i gia^.n. Kho^ng hie^?u
ho^`i sau ra sao.
Du` sao cu~ng ca^`n thu'c dda^?y da^n Nha^.t mua ha`ng. Tie^u du`ng la` su+.
so^'ng
co`n cu?a ne^`n kinh te^' Nha^.t.
Ca'c chuye^n gia kinh te^' ddu+`ng cu+o+`i vi` nhu+~ng do`ng vie^'t nga^y
ngo^ o+? tre^n :-).
Ca.
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